Perspectives: a solar boom is coming
and we need to prepare for it
Before we start - this is a shortened version of a longer blog that was previously published on The Sustainable Investor. You can read the full version here, and see all of our other content, on our dedicated blog platform, you just need to sign in, by clicking here. Its free, which seems to us to be very good value for money.
Contrary to concerns at the start of the year, 2022 is expected to have been another boom year for solar, with c. 200 GW of installed capacity, up from c. 150 GW in 2021. And this could just be the beginning. Organisations such as the IEA are forecasting that by 2027 annual net additions will be c. 300 GW pa, taking cumulative solar PV capacity to c. 1,500 GW. Other analysts are even more optimistic, expecting the 300 GW pa level to be hit sooner, and in some cases much sooner. While solar is small now, its going to become a big deal pretty quickly now.
Its perhaps a sign of the times that we are referencing a podcast (Redefining Energy No 88), rather than a report or a magazine article. Redefining Energy is one of our "go to" podcasts, and this one, which features an interview with Finlay Colville, head of research at PV-Tech and Solar Media, is especially good. You can also read some of his commentary in a recent article he wrote for PVTech.
Organisations such as the IEA are forcasting that cumulative installed solar capacity will rise by c. 1,500 GW by 2027 (cf just over 1,000 GW now, so c. 2.5x growth in just 5 years). But Finlay is much more optimistic, expecting global supply to grow rapidly from the c. 300GW produced this year - as the mainly Chinese producers rush to meet demand, both at home and abroad. He believes that the industry will reach 1TW of production capacity this decade. This is roughly twice what the IEA is expecting !
This is a totally good news story. The world needs more renewables if damaging climate change is to be avoided. Yes, but ... for this to be "successful" we need more innovation, better supply chains, and more investment in grid stability/resilience.
We dig down into these issues a bit more in our longer version of the blog, again you can read it here.