We need to think differently about our electricity systems
Or why the future will look very different from the past
When we think about transitioning our economic systems we tend to assume that if we make each element of the system more sustainable, then the whole will be as well.
But often that is wrong. We normally need to change how the system works. And this change throws up lots of new opportunities - very different ways of doing things. These new ways often have no resemblance to the old ways. And the more sustainable versions of the old ways can turn out to be dead ends.
We know why this happens. Incumbents don’t want change to happen too quickly. They want us to adapt more ‘sustainable’ ways of doing what we do now. But the real investment opportunity lies in looking at a problem differently.
Let’s look at passenger transport.
The focus has been on replacing the high-carbon emitting internal combustion engine (ICE) with the low-carbon / no carbon emitting electric motor to produce an electric vehicle (EV). However, that brings some challenges. In 2021 the IEA estimated that the production of an EV uses approximately six times more minerals than a conventional car. So if we replaced all of the ICE vehicles with EVs, whilst we may reduce emissions from the engine in operation, the resource requirements (including energy requirements for mining the additional minerals) would impact other areas of sustainability. This is not to say we should not transition to EV’s, but we need to be up front about the wider implications.
But the possible changes go wider than that. Instead of visiting petrol/gas stations, consumers will rely on home or public charging stations, which could potentially change their travel and 're-energising' habits. And in many cities electrification may make two & three wheelers more popular. Or they may give a boost to public transport.
And thinking more widely, electrification may also change how we think about city design. Traditional large scale urbanisation has been car-centric in its design. We live here, we work there, we get from here to there and back again using a car. Smart city design aims to improve the efficiency of how we live including reducing how much time is spent on non-productive activities. The '20-minute city' concept (sometimes 15-minute) aims to do exactly that. Planning and implementation is key and should be holistic to be successful.
And it’s not just true in transport. We need to apply new systems thinking to how we use electricity in our homes and buildings. And that is before we start to apply systems thinking to industry.
